Osun 2026: Why Osogbo, Ife, Iwo And Ilesa East Could Hold The Key To Victory
The battle for the Osun State governorship seat is entering its decisive stage, with the outcome of Saturday’s election likely to depend heavily on how the leading candidates perform in a number of closely contested local government areas.
Incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, All Progressives Congress candidate Bola Oyebamiji, and African Democratic Congress candidate Najeem Salaam have intensified their campaigns as they attempt to consolidate their traditional support bases while making fresh inroads into areas where their opponents have stronger political structures.
Although the three major contenders have established strongholds, several local government areas have emerged as potential deciding points because none of the leading camps appears to have an overwhelming advantage in them.
One of the biggest battlegrounds is Osogbo, the state capital, where Adeleke, Oyebamiji and Salaam all have significant political interests. Adeleke enjoys the backing of the Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji, while APC figures including Senator Ajibola Basiru and Adekunle Adegoke are working to strengthen the party’s position. Salaam is also expected to benefit from the continued influence of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola in the area.
Neighbouring Olorunda presents a similarly complicated contest. Adeleke has support from influential traditional and political figures, while the APC is relying on its established political machinery. Salaam, meanwhile, is seeking to turn Aregbesola’s remaining grassroots influence into votes.
The three local government areas of Ife Central, Ife East and Ife South could also become crucial. Adeleke is expected to perform strongly in the area because of the influence of his running mate, Kola Adewusi, and former PDP National Secretary, Wale Oladipo. However, Oyebamiji has an important advantage through his running mate, Benjamin Adereti, who is from Ile-Ife.
Odo Otin is another council area where political calculations could prove decisive. The APC is hoping that the support associated with former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola will strengthen Oyebamiji’s position, but the presence of House of Assembly Speaker Wale Egbedun could complicate the APC’s expected advantage.
In Iwo, Adeleke is counting on the support of former Osun State Secretary to the Government, Moshood Adeoti, who is from the area. However, political opposition from figures within the APC camp means the governor cannot take the council for granted.
Ilesa East is equally significant. Oyebamiji has a local connection in the area, but the political influence of former Governor Aregbesola could affect the APC’s calculations. Salaam is also expected to compete strongly in the council.
Beyond these key battlegrounds, the APC has identified several areas where it believes it can secure strong support, including Ayedaade, Irewole and Isokan, where Oyebamiji is seeking to benefit from his political base and the influence of former governorship hopeful Dotun Babayemi.
The APC also considers Boluwaduro, Boripe, Irepodun, Ife North and Obokun favourable areas, while its campaign has been strengthened in parts of Ilesa through prominent party figures. Adeleke, on the other hand, has made inroads in councils including Ifelodun, Ila, Oriade, Ifedayo, Orolu and Ola-Oluwa.
The third major contender, Najeem Salaam, cannot be ignored in the calculations. A former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly who served for eight years, Salaam is seeking to convert his political structure and the influence inherited from Aregbesola into enough votes to disrupt what otherwise appears to be a closely fought contest between Adeleke and Oyebamiji.
The confidence of the leading camps is reflected in their competing claims. The Osun APC has predicted victory across all 30 local government areas, while the Accord Party has made a similar claim for Adeleke. The competing projections highlight how uncertain the race remains ahead of the poll.
With 15,000 police officers deployed for the election and the Police Service Commission sending a monitoring team to oversee the conduct of personnel, security and the protection of voters will also be important factors as Osun heads to the polls.
Ultimately, the election may not be decided solely by the candidates’ traditional strongholds. The ability to win competitive areas such as Osogbo, Olorunda, the three Ife councils, Odo Otin, Iwo and Ilesa East could determine who emerges as Osun’s next governor.